BOOK REVIEW: SAME AS EVER: TIMELESS LESSONS ON RISK, OPPORTUNITY, AND LIVING A GOOD LIFE BY MORGAN HOUSEL

By Lyzette Schwella, Counselling Psychologist

Housel, M. (2023). Same as Ever: Timeless Lessons On Risk, Opportunity, and Living a Good Life. Penguin Random House.

Morgan Housel shares in the twenty-five chapters of his book the things that never change and serve as universal truths. In my summary of the book, I focused per chapter on those that stood out for me.

1. Introduction

It is important to know how the things that never change will shape the future.  Examples are people’s penchant for greed and fear. Also, how success goes to business leaders’ heads.

2. Hanging by a thread

Much of the world hangs by a thread and makes predictions exceedingly hard.

3. Risk is what you don’t see

Expectations are more valuable than forecasts. It is better to invest in preparedness than in predictions.

4. Expectations and Reality

Having low expectations is the first rule of happiness. People are driven by envy. They want what other people have and they have not. This is an unavoidable trait in most people.

5. Wild minds

Role models should be carefully selected and emulated.

6. Wild numbers

On average, the world breaks every ten years. People want certainty and not accuracy. Seeing black and white is easier.

7. Best story wins

People are more influenced by stories than statistics.

8. Do not compute

The forces that drive the world cannot be measured. The truth is constant uncertainty, misunderstanding, and the inability to know what people will do next.

9. Calm plants the seeds of crazy

Calm makes us fundamentally underestimate the odds of things going wrong. Crazy within the parameters of normal is good, as well as realizing the power of enough.

10. Too much, too soon, too fast

Patience and scarcity give value to most great things. An example is when a good idea is sped up too fast and it quickly becomes a terrible idea.

11. When the magic happens

Being worried, scared, and eager drive innovations. There is a delicate balance between helpful stress and crippling disaster. Be careful what you wish for.

12. Overnight tragedies and long-term miracles

The idea of “complex to make, simple to break” is everywhere. Building a reputation can take twenty years and be destroyed in five minutes.

13. Tiny and Magnificent

The little things compound into extraordinary things.

14. Elation and Despair

We need optimism and pessimism to coexist. Rational optimism is to remain optimistic despite a chain of problems, disappointments, and setbacks because setbacks do not prevent eventual progress. Plan like a pessimist and dream like an optimist.

15. Casualties of perfection

Room for error can have some of the highest payoffs. The more perfect you try to become, the more vulnerable you generally are.

16. It’s supposed to be hard

Once you accept nothing worth pursuing is free; some degree of volatility has to be endured to get anything done; and a certain level of inefficiency needs to be endured you will have a clearer view of how the world works.

17. Keep running

Be prepared to be wrong; success leading to growth has disadvantages; relaxation after achieving a goal can be detrimental; skills are era specific and not applicable to all situations; and sometimes your success is owed to being at the right place the right time. “Keep running” just to stay in place.

18. The wonders of the future

Never underestimate the potential of new technology. Small things can compound into an enormous thing.

19. Harder than it looks and not as fun as it seems

Be mindful of the window-dressing that is by far the most common. Skills are advertised and flaws are hidden. Everybody is dealing with hardships they do not advertise. Be kind to yourself and others.

20. Incentives: The most powerful force in the world

Appeal to interest is much more persuasive than appeal to reason. Incentives are more convincing than advice. People believe what they want to believe.  Ask yourself, “Which of my current views would change if my incentives were different?”

21. Now you get it

What you experienced first-hand is the most important influence in your life.  How you will handle unexpected hardships is the unknown.

22. Time horizons

Long-term thinking is easier to believe than to accomplish. Patience is often stubbornness in disguise. There are two types of information, namely permanent and expiring. Read more books to acquire permanent information that will help develop better filters and frameworks to make sense of the world.

23. Trying too hard

Complexity is favoured for its excitement and sells better. Simplicity is the hallmark of truth and often more effective.

24. Wounds heal, scars last

Different experiences let people think differently. Disagreement has less to do with what people know and more to do with what they’ve experienced.

25. Questions we need to ask:

• Who has the right answers, but I ignore them because they’re not articulate?

• Which of my current views would I disagree with if I were born in a different country or generation?

• What do I desperately want to be true so much that I think it’s true when it’s clearly not?

• What is a problem that I think applies only to other countries/industries/careers that will eventually hit me?

• What do I think is true but is actually just good marketing?

• What haven’t I experienced first-hand that leaves me naïve about how something works?

• What looks unsustainable but is actually a new trend we haven't accepted yet?

• Who do I think is smart but is actually full of it?

• Am I prepared to handle risks I can’t even envision?

• Which of my current views would change if my incentives were different?

• What are we ignoring today that will seem shockingly obvious in the future?

• What events very nearly happened that would have fundamentally changed the world I know if they had occurred?

• How much have things outside my control contributed to things I take credit for?

• How do I know If I’m being patient (a skill) or stubborn (a flaw)?

• Who do I look up to that is secretly miserable?

• What hassle am I trying to eliminate that’s actually an unavoidable cost of success?

• What crazy genius that I aspire to emulate is actually just crazy?

• What strong belief do I hold that’s most likely to change?

• What’s always been true?

• What’s the same as ever?

This book is highly recommended. We cannot predict the future, but we can rely on the things that never change. VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous) will always be with us.