WHAT'S HAPPENING IN EUROPE? - THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
By Gerrit Jan Bouwhuis
Introduction
Six previous articles successively addressed post-war changes in Europe (immigration and the development of European cooperation), the difficult discussion about immigration, the culture battle around “woke”, the war in Ukraine and climate and energy policies in Europe. The current article is focusing on the European Parliament (EP), in view of the upcoming elections on June 9, and is structured in terms of the EP itself, the electoral system and the political importance of these elections. The sources used mainly consist of the English Wikipedia and the “Brussels websites”. Here and there, my own impressions and appreciations will be added. After the elections on June 9, the results will be detailed in a subsequent article.
The European Parliament: its powers
The European Parliament does not have the same position as national parliaments in Western democracies. For decision-making and regulations, the power lies dominantly with the European Council. The European Commission has a dominant position in implementation. Nevertheless, the EP has a number of important powers. The most important are:
Adoption of EU-regulations together with the European Council on the basis of Commission proposals; The EP has no right of initiative; it can only request the Commission;
Decision on international agreements;
Decision on accession of new member states;
Choice of the Chairman of the Commission and approval of all Commission members. This is an important power that will be exercised again in the months after the elections when the new Commission is composed. Parliament then “grills” candidates for hours and if they are not convincing, they can be blocked. Sometimes that happens.
Adoption of the EU budget together with the European Council;
Debate practice is different from normal in parliaments. Commissioners who are speaking may not be interrupted. So, the debates are not very lively.
One more element. The European Parliament is located in both Strasbourg and Brussels. Meetings are held alternately at both locations. This situation results in a costly “moving circus”. To date, no agreement could be reached with France on giving up Strasbourg as a seat of the EP.
The European Parliament: the elections
Direct elections have taken place since 1979. The elections are organized by and held in the Member States. There are no European lists of candidates. In each country, the political parties of that country compete for the seats available to that country. Some European political movements do appoint “top candidates”, but they can only be elected in their own country, at least if they are on a list there. For these elections, Ursula von der Leyen has been chosen as the “top candidate” of the European People's Party (EPP) because she aspires a second term as Commission President. She will lead the EPP campaign, but she is not on any list, not even in Germany. That was also the case in 2019. She became the chairwoman of the Commission at the proposal of the French president Macron.
The way in which the European Parliament is elected is the result of both European legislation with rules for all Member States and specific national provisions. The principle of proportional representation is laid down in European regulations. The British district system is therefore not permitted. This made it possible that Nigel Farage of the British party UKIP (proponent of Brexit) had at its maximum 24 seats in the EP and only one in the British Parliament.
Countries may apply an electoral threshold with a maximum of 5%. In the upcoming elections there are the following electoral thresholds: 5%: Belgium, Croatia, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania; 4%: Sweden; 3%: Greece; 1.8% Cyprus. By the way, only the electoral threshold in Belgium has a possible meaning (it can just keep a party that does not meet the 5% threshold, outside parliament). The other countries do not have enough seats for this. Germany has no electoral threshold, although it has a threshold of 5% for all national elections. The German Constitutional Court has banned an electoral threshold for the European Elections.
Most countries have a minimum age of 18 for suffrage. Four countries use 16 years: Belgium, Germany, Austria and Malta.
The elections must take place between June 6 and 9. Most countries vote on Sunday, June 9. Exceptions are June 6: Netherlands; June 7: Ireland; June 7/8: Czech Republic; June 8: Latvia, Slovakia and Malta; June 8/9: Italy. In the Netherlands, religious groups’ objections to Sunday elections are respected. Results in all countries are publicized the 9th in the evening.
In some countries a lot of political parties participate in the elections. In the Netherlands: 20. In Germany: 35. In France: 38. In Austria: 7.
Table 1 presents the turnout for the last European elections 2019. In the EU as a whole the turnout was 51 % included the turnout in the UK that in 2019 still participated with a turnout of 37 %. The between-country variation in turnout is very wide from 25 % in Slovenia to 84 % in Luxembourg.
The European Parliament: the number of seats per country
Since 2020 (after Brexit) the EP has 705 seats. The EP may have a maximum of 751 seats, including one for the president, who has no voting rights. Currently, the president is the Italian Roberta Metsola. After June 9, the parliament will have 720 seats. The number of seats of the countries is linked to the population size. Periodically, corrections are made in connection with population developments. The distribution is not proportional. Smaller countries have disproportionally more seats. For 2024, the maximum number of seats is 96 (Germany). The minimum number is six (Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta), preventing small countries from being barely represented (see table 1). This means, however, that the voting weight of the citizen of Malta is ten times that of the citizen of Germany. This type of deviation from proportionality is not unique. In the US Senate, each State has 2 seats….
The European Parliament: the political families
As mentioned above, there are no European lists of candidates. In each country, national parties participate in the EP elections. This means that after the elections, in Brussels parties will “arrive” with a “national political color”. This means that the EP has a differentiated political spectrum, with 27 national nuances. In practice, members of European parliament (MEPs) organize themselves into fractions based on political affinity. There are advantages in belonging to a fraction, in the sense of facilities and functions. A fraction must have at least 25 members from seven different countries. After each election, the fractions are re-formed. Participation is not automatic. Changes can also occur during a term of office. Many fractions consist of groups with different political backgrounds, including independents. The fractions are a kind of umbrella organizations. The fraction pressure is less than in national parliaments. Voting is free. MEPs who do not join a political fraction are called NIs (French: Non-Inscrits). Currently, there are seven political fractions with membership ranging from 176 to 37. There are 61 NIs. Table 2 maps the origin of these seven fractions and the single group of IDs by country. Following the table, a brief explanation is presented.
Characteristics of the seven fractions and the single group of NIs
EPP. The European People's Party EPP) includes parties with a Christian-democratic and conservative-liberal orientation. The EPP is positioned center-right. Pro-European. This fraction includes the German Christian and Social Democrats, Forza Italia (the party of the late Berlusconi), the French Republicans (the former Gaullists) and the Polish Civic Movement of Donald Tusk. The German Manfred Weber is fraction chairman. In 1999, the EPP took over the position as the largest fraction from the Social Democrats. Until 2009, the British Conservatives also belonged to the EPP. However, they formed the ECR together with others in 2009. In 2021, Hungary's Fidesz left the EPP. The EPP has often formed a coalition with the Social Democrats and sometimes with the Liberals. In 2019, these three fractions elected Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission.
S&D. The progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats is home for the social democratic parties. This fraction is positioned center-left. Strongly pro-European. Until 1999 this was the largest fraction. Since then they have been second. The largest blocs are the German, Italian and Spanish social democrats. In a number of countries, social democratic parties have declined sharply in recent years. Examples: France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Currently, Ireland is the only country that has no members in this fraction.
Renew. The most important part of Renew is the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE). Very strongly pro-Europe. When this fraction proposed joining Macron's new French “En Marche” in 2019, they did not want to be called liberals. Hence the name Renew. Verhofstadt has been the leader of this fraction for a long time. The French have been the largest bloc in this fraction since 2019. The Netherlands, Romania and Denmark also have relatively many liberals. For the rest, the range is large. Two parties from the Netherlands have joined, the conservative-liberals and the progressive-liberals. Now that the conservative-liberals in the Netherlands are entering into a coalition with Geert Wilders' PVV, votes are being cast in Brussels to remove the VVD from Renew. Cyprus, Malta and Portugal have no representatives in this fraction.
The Greens. The Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA). The green parties have gathered in this fraction, but the fraction also accommodates a range of smaller specific parties, such as Volt, Party for the Animals and Pirates and minority parties. Strongly pro-European. The two dominant blocs in this fraction are the German and French Greens. It is striking that in Eastern Europe only the Czech Republic and Estonia have representatives in this group.
ECR. The European Conservatives and Reformers. In this fraction we find the (moderate) Eurosceptics. They are national conservative and anti-federalist. This fraction started in 2009 as an initiative of the British Conservatives. Since Brexit, the Polish Law And Justice Party (PiS) has been by far the largest bloc in this fraction. From Italy, this fraction includes the party of Italian Prime Minister Meloni (Fratelli). From Belgium, this fraction includes Bart de Wever's NVA with, among others, Assita Kanko, the Burkina Faso fighter against radical Islam and the woke culture of victimhood. The ECR is on Ukraine's side in the Ukraine conflict.
ID. Identity and Democracy. There is strong Euroscepticism in this fraction. They want the states to remain sovereign. In addition, immigration is the most important theme. The two dominant blocs here are the French Rassemblement National of Marine Le Pen and the Italian Lega Nord of Salvini, Meloni's coalition partner. This fraction also includes the Vlaams Belang from Belgian Flanders, for which a cordon sanitaire has been applied in Belgium until now. The ID has aligned itself with Ukraine in the Ukraine conflict.
The Left. This fraction includes parties with a socialist, a communist and a slightly Eurosceptic orientation. Euroscepticism here mainly means opposition against “capitalist Europe”. This fraction includes the German “Linke” and communist parties from France, Portugal, Italy and Greece. This fraction wants to leave NATO and strives for a “different Europe”. In the Ukraine conflict they are more on the Russian side.
NI. Non Inscrits. The only thing that the NI or non-registered have in common is that they do not belong anywhere. The group mostly includes individuals, but also specific parties. The Hungarian Fidesz, Victor Orban's party, has left the EPP in 2021 and is now in this group. Another party in this group is the German AFD (Alternative für Deutschland). This party was very recently expelled from the ID fraction at the initiative of Marine le Pen after statements by a leader of the AFD which were considered anti-semitic. In this group we also find the so-called five-star movement of Italy (leaders: Beppe Grillo; Giuseppe Conte, who was also a prime minister; now the party is in the opposition).
The European Parliament elections: the discussions?
Some important topics include the following:
The EU's competitiveness. The EU's global economic importance is declining. Twenty years ago, the total gross domestic product was 26% of the world total. Now it is 19%. Economic growth is lower than in China, but also lower than in the US. Two Italian former prime ministers, Letti and Draghi, prepared reports on how the EU can strengthen itself economically. Letti advocates modernization and expansion of the internal market. According to him, there are still too many “national markets”. Both of them advocate a radical approach with reforms, investments in innovation, digital infrastructure and green transition. The thoughts in these reports on the EU's economic future mean expanding the EU's powers. That is politically controversial.
The Green Deal. The (proposed) realization of the Green Deal (climate neutrality in 2050; restoration of nature; promotion of ecological agriculture) has important consequences for citizens and companies, including higher costs and more rules that must be complied with (for example by farmers). That is why the Green Deal is causing increasing resistance.
Safety. With the war in Ukraine a stone’s throw away, questions surrounding the position to be taken in this war, concrete measures to be taken (military support, sanctions) and the future design of the security concept are clearly on the agenda.
Migration. Migration is a permanent, politically sensitive issue with great electoral potential. A migration pact has been concluded. It seems, however, unlikely that this will solve the problems.
Expansion. The EU has nine formal candidate countries, five countries in the Balkans, plus Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia and Turkey. All of these potential extensions are controversial to varying degrees.
The right of veto. Much decision-making requires unanimity. Some argue in favor of expanding majority decision-making. That is very sensitive.
The euro. The question for the Euro countries is: what further with the Euro? The Euro has increasingly become a “Latin currency”. From the beginning the criteria for debt and deficit (60 % and -3 %) and paths to realize them are not kept. At the moment six countries don’t comply with both of the criteria, among them: France, Italy and Spain. Recently the paths to compliance have been liberated. Northern countries have great difficulties with these developments. This is related to the question whether there should be Eurobonds and structural transfers between countries. All this has an heavy dividing potential.
Taxation. Should the EU start raising taxes itself?
Social policy. Should the EU set the minimum wage?
Typically, there may be many more topics as time and situations demand.
Concluding remarks
The topics mentioned above all imply substantive discussions. But the most important discussion is the question: more or less Europe? More transfer of sovereignty or less? Over the past few decades, there has been increasing resistance to the “power of Brussels”. In addition to migration, this was a driving factor for the rise of Eurosceptic “populist” parties.
On the one hand there are the convinced “federalists” who want to go on with building a European Federal State, a European Nationhood, to make reality of the “European Citizenship”, already introduced in the Treaty of Maastricht, 1992. One the other hand we have a growing part of the population that says: we don’t want that. Instead of that we want to keep our own countries. We are French, German, Italian, Dutch or whatever. The divisions on the discussions above and on these discussion are about the same. S&D, Renew and Greens are the strongly convinced federalists. They want to go on: more power for Europe and more countries joining. ECR, ID and others are against: less power to Europe. Most of them also are reluctant to welcome new members. Some of them even want an exit. But my guess is most of them agree with cooperation of Sovereign States, but don’t want a “Superstate”.
In the EU the EPP is a bit in the middle, less strongly federalist than Renew, Greens and S&D, but in the end more with them than with the sceptics. For the sceptics, however, the EPP is the logical partner to deal with. Within the EU, Victor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, who will be also the longest-serving Prime Minister in the European Council after Rutte's departure, is a strong defender of national sovereignty. But the longing for Sovereignty is strong in Eastern European countries in general and is growing in Western European countries. Under the new cabinet, the Netherlands will be much more critical. In France the Rassemblement National of Marine le Pen is expected to win the elections. Italy has a prime minister that stresses sovereignty. The Eurosceptic parties are expected to win. In the coming elections the question will be how much the power relations between “Europhiles” and “Eurofobes” will change. We will see on the 9th of June 2024.
About the author: Gerrit Jan Bouwhuis (1948) was advisor to the Minister of Finance in the Netherlands. After his retirement he made study trips to Africa and Eastern Europe. Since 2018, he has worked as an international election observer in Ukraine, Iraq and Turkey.
Commentaires