WHAT'S HAPPENING IN EUROPE?- THE RESULTS OF THE ELECTIONS FOR THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT
By Gerrit Jan Bouwhuis
Introduction
Seven previous articles successively addressed post-war changes in Europe (immigration and the development of European cooperation), the difficult discussion about immigration, the culture battle around “woke”, the war in Ukraine, the climate and energy policies in Europe and the European Parliament as an Institution.
In the current article, the results of the elections for the European Parliament (June 6 until June 9) in the 27 member states are reported. For the data the sources used are again the English Wikipedia and the EU-website: https://results.elections.europa.eu/en/. In part, the results are not yet definitive. In addition, personal interpretations and analyses are offered regarding what happened last weekend.
The article is structured as follows. First, the election results are listed, providing insight in the developments in the five largest countries, supplemented with the Netherlands and Belgium. The recent results are presented against the background of the national political situation. I then give the results for the European Parliament as a whole and an analysis of these results. Finally, I look forward to the coming weeks.
Regarding terms used, three “axes” play a role: left-right for the economic political spectrum; progressive-conservative for the political spectrum in terms of values (including immigration, but also “woke” and climate); and: federalist or EU-critical. Federalists are in favor of more power to Europe (transfer of sovereignty). EU-critical people are against this. They want to preserve nationally sovereign countries. In practice, there is a broad spectrum ranging from very radical federalists to proponents of withdrawal and all nuances in between, including a position of “stay where you are”. In line with the media, I also use terms like “radical right”, to indicate parties that are EU-critical and conservative. However basically I don’t like terms like these. They are mostly used to demonize political opponents.
Revisiting the grouping from the previous article, the names of the seven political fractions and two other groups in the EU Parliament are listed below:
EPP, the European People's Party (Christian-Democrats and Conservative-Liberals);
S&D, Socialists and Democrats;
Renew, mostly Progressive-Liberals, among them the french “Macronists”;
Greens/LFA (Greens);
ECR, European Conservatives and Reformists (moderately EU-critical; on the “right”);
ID, Identity and Democracy (strongly EU-critical; “radical right”);
The Left, Radical Left and Communists;
NIs, Non-Inscrits, members without ties to a fraction;
New. In 2024 elected representatives of new political formations elected;
The National Context
The previous elections for the European Parliament took place in 2019. For a good perspective on the new Parliament, the current elections must be compared with those in 2019 (to be precise, with the distribution of seats in 2020, after the departure of the UK). But nationally, the elections are also compared with the last national elections, often even in the first place. The European elections also have national significance in many countries, sometimes even direct consequences, as in France. I will discuss both aspects.
In Germany, two major shifts have taken place, compared to the EU 2020: the AfD (“radical right”; NI) wins six seats; the Greens lose nine. There is one important newcomer: Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) with six seats. BSW is a new movement: economically left conservative on values and critical of the EU. This makes Wagenknecht an alternative to the AfD, with which she also has in common that she is critical of the war in Ukraine. She rejects strongly the policy of the government. She, however, emphatically distances herself from the AfD, saying that people deserve better than being forced to vote AfD, because politicians don’t listen to them. Thus far, her alternative has only had limited effectiveness. It will be interesting to see how BSW develops in three Länder elections in September. The current election was her first. Now she has a beginning. My personal opinion is that Sahra Wagenknecht at the moment is the best politician in Germany. She has clear and good political views.
It is important for the national perspective that the SPD has also lost significantly compared to 2021. The Union lost those elections with the wrong political leader. The SPD won and Scholz, the leader of the SPD, became Chancellor (after 16 years of Merkel, Union) in a coalition with Greens and Liberals, the so-called traffic light coalition. That coalition took office in December 2021 and immediately found itself in dire straits in February 2022, when the war in Ukraine started. The Greens set the tone in this coalition, with Robert Habeck as Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Economic Affairs and Annalena Baerbock as Minister of Foreign Affairs. They take a hard line towards Russia. The liberals support that. Only the SPD and Scholz are slowing down a bit. The sanctions against Russia and the resulting high energy prices have caused economic difficulties for Germany, exacerbated by the fact that Germany has completely abandoned nuclear energy.
These days, there was a riot in Germany when a speech by the stock exchange chairman became public. He stated that the image of Germany among investors has never been as bad as it is now, that the government is pursuing a disastrous policy, and that Germany is on its way to becoming a developing country… Of course, the government was angry. I'm afraid the man is right. The faltering economy and the war are costly, currently leading to a budget crisis. In the EP elections, the support of the coalition fell to only 31% of the electorate. The Union led by Merz, who lost the power struggle with Merkel in 2005, was now doing well: 30%. Merz has claimed victory and called for new elections. Scholz should follow Macron… That is unlikely to happen unless the coalition breaks on the budget. In summary: stability has not increased in Germany and Europe continues to lack strong leadership from Germany.
In France there are major shifts compared to 2020. President Macron's Renew bloc loses ten seats. The Rassemblement National (RN, Marine Le Pen, ID) wins twelve seats. The Greens lose seven seats. The Socialists are doing well: seven seats gained. Republicans remain roughly stable. After this result was announced on Sunday evening, from Paris came the most surprising news: President Macron dissolved the Assembly. There will be new parliamentary elections in two rounds on June 30 and July 7. The background is as follows. Macron has been President of France since 2017. In 2017, he also won the majority in the Parliament with his new movement “En Marche”. He lost that majority in 2022. From then on, he had to govern with the support of the Republicans (conservative).
In December 2023, this coalition adopted a law on immigration and asylum. Several ministers in the Borne cabinet resigned because they considered the law too strict. Macron then replaced Prime Minister Borne with the 34-year-old Attal and replaced several ministers in the cabinet. So, since January there has been a new cabinet. Some said that France now has the most right-wing cabinet since WW2. This attempt to take the wind out of Le Pen's sails was not successful. Now Macron is fleeing forward by calling new elections. Macron is strongly pro-Europe and has expressed this in an important speech. Le Pen is very critical of Europe. His announcement Sunday-evening of the dissolving of the Parliament was a clear declaration of political war to the RN. He said that the populists are dangerous for France. So, he plays va banque. It is impossible to predict how the parliamentary elections will turn out. If Le Pen acquires a dominant position in the Assembly, Macron will have the choice between having to complete his term until 2027 in an uneasy “cohabitation” with RN or to give up his Presidency prematurely, which never happened before and is strange, for he has an electoral mandate for five years. Analysts speculate about the strategy of Macron. Well, European eyes will be turned on France the coming weeks.
There were significant shifts in Italy. Prime Minister Meloni won 14 seats with her Fratelli d'Italia (ECR). These seats came entirely from her coalition partner Lega Norte (Deputy Prime Minister Salvini, ID). The Socialists won five seats. The Liberals (Renew) lost their 4 seats. In Italy, the tradition is that there is an average of one cabinet per year. In recent years there have been two cabinets led by partyless (not acting on behalf of a party) technocrats, Conte and Draghi. The electorate in Italy is highly volatile. “Centre-right or “right-wing” or “populist” parties, as you like, in particular can rise and fall sharply (from 5 to 34 % and back again). Berlusconi (Forza Italia, EPP) and Salvini (Lega Nord, ID) previously experienced this. In 2022, Meloni of the “Brothers of Italy” (National Conservative, ECR) succeeded in gaining a large support. She became Italy's first female Prime Minister. She governs together with Lega Norte and Forza Italia. Meloni had turned the EP elections into a vote of confidence for her government. She succeeded in this. She won even more than two years ago. Meloni occupies a central position economically, but culturally she is conservative. She was critical of Europe, but unlike Berlusconi and Salvini she pursued a pragmatic and more cooperative course. For the time being Italy, different from Germany and France, is a stable factor with a conservative slant.
Compared to 2020, significant shifts have also taken place in Spain. The Conservatives (EPP) won 9 seats. The Renew bloc lost almost all its seats. The Social Democrats lost little. In Spain, Pedro Sanchez, leader of the Social Democrats, has been in power since mid-2019, after Rajoy's conservative government fell. Sanchez has had his third cabinet since 2023. He governs with the support of left-wing, communist and Catalan parties. The EU-critical movement is much less strong in Spain than in a number of other countries. Vox (ECR) won, but only has six seats. Spain also seems to be a stable factor for the time being, with a progressive and pro-European slant.
In Poland, the conservative, “nationalistic” party PiS (Law and Justice, ECR), which governed from 2015 to 2023, lost seven seats. The Civic Forum (a “catch all” alliance led by Donald Tusk, EPP) won the elections. This result confirms last year's national elections. Then PiS lost its majority and Donald Tusk came to govern together with two coalition partners: “Third Way” (Christian Democrats) and the Left. PiS's significant loss is partly "compensated" by the fact that a new party "right" of PiS (Confederation) has achieved 11%.
Since Scholz and Macron currently have problems, Tusk has already declared himself to be the “leader” of Europe. Tusk and the Citizens' Forum are an exception in the usual political picture. They are economically moderately right-wing, culturally moderately conservative rather than progressive, but rather strongly pro-European. Tusk is also a former President of the European Council. However, this does not mean that Poland will support more federalization. Also under Tusk, Poland will defend his sovereignty. And also, Tusk asks for a tough policy on immigration. The war in Ukraine and its consequences in the form of refugee flows played a leading role in the campaign. Tusk took positions from PiS.
In comparison with 2020, the Dutch results are not shocking. The gain of 5 seats for the PVV (“radical right”, Geert Wilders) gives an incorrect picture: another, even more “radical right” party, which received 4 seats in 1919, has now completely disappeared. The table, however, does not show that a political revolution is occurring in the Netherlands since November 2023. On November 22, Geert Wilders with his EU-critical party PVV won the elections (37 out of 150 seats), second was the United Left (Socialists and Greens) (25 seats), third were the conservative-liberals, VVD (24 seats) fourth the new party New Social Contract (NSC) of Pieter Omtzigt (20 seats). Furthermore, the “agrarian” party BBB won seven seats (but they have the largest fraction in the Senate). The proposed coalition of PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB is now almost ready. Prime Minister becomes a non-party civil servant. This new cabinet will take a much more EU-critical course than the previous cabinets. The results of the European Elections are affected by the turnout. This is much lower than for national elections: 47% instead of 81%. “Federalists” vote much more than EU-critical people.
In total, 78% of November voters for the United Left showed up again, whereas only 44% of PVV voters in November did show up again. The result is that the United Left gets 8 of the 31 seats and Wilders only 6. In summary: for the position of the Netherlands in the EU, the change of the Cabinet and of the Prime Minister is much more important than the outcome of the European Parliament elections. And the Netherlands being a small country, its influence is small.
Belgium is the most special case. Belgium consists of two parts: (Dutch speaking) Flanders and (French speaking) Wallonia. Belgium has 22 seats in the European Parliament, 13 for the Flemish, 8 for the Wallonians and 1 for the German speakers. There were also elections on Sunday for the Federal Parliament and for the Parliaments of Flanders and Wallonia. In Flanders there are two EU-critical and conservative parties: the Vlaams Belang (VB), “radical right” and always kept out of government, and the New Flemish Alliance, NVA, of Bart de Wever. In Flanders the NVA governs, federally it is in the opposition. Federally a broad “progressive” coalition governs. In Wallonia, the conservative and Euro-critical parties are missing. Traditionally, the socialists are strongest there, followed by the liberals.
On June 9, however, the liberals became the biggest party and a centrist gained most. In Flanders, totally opposite to Wallonia de liberals lost strongly. In both parts of Belgium, the Greens lost strongly. The incumbent coalition lost to both the “right” and the economically strongly left-wing party (economical axis) in both parts of the country. All these shifts inside the country are not seen in the results for the European seats, partly because of compensation between the regions, partly because the number of seats in the European Parliament is too small to make a difference. Also, in Belgium, it is more important what happens national and regional than the outcome of the elections for the European Parliament. In Belgium now a new cabinet has to be formed. In Belgium, that’s always very complicated. Belgium holds the record for coalition formation, 504 days. There may be a seventh State Reform (since 1971), in which even more powers will be transferred from the Federal Government to the federal states. All of this, however, has little influence on Europe.
Assessment of the results: some concluding remarks
Liberals and Greens are the clear losers. In Europe, liberals are mainly progressive liberals. Economically, they are more on the right. The progressive liberals are convinced federalists. The Greens are also federalists and progressive, but economically left. In countries such as Germany, Belgium and France, the result for the European Parliament also means a vote of non-confidence in the incumbent coalition. Federalistic progressive forces have been weakened in the European Parliament.
EU-critical parties have won. The expectation was: “a significant push to the “right”. This significant push was feared or hoped for. A shift has happened, but it is a relatively small one, not a big shift. This result is mainly explained by the assumption that EU-critical people are less motivated to vote. Currently, it is unclear how much more influence the EU-critical parties will have. This influence depends on the formation of the political blocks as well. This formation has not yet taken place, neither for the parties that have been assigned to the bloc in which they are now located, nor for new parties (the yet unknown ones). My assessment is that these new ones could include many EU-critical members, for example the new “right-wing” party in Poland.
EPP and S&D are winners. The European People's Party is a clear winner (9 more seats) and has consolidated its position as the leading political family. The EPP thanks this position mainly to the Union in Germany, the Citizens' Forum in Poland and the Conservatives in Spain. The EPP is classically pro-European, but more moderate than the progressive liberals and the Greens. The Social Democrats are also psychological winners, because they have maintained their position as the second-strongest force, mainly thanks to the recovery in France and the good results in Spain and Italy. The Social Democrats are also classically pro-European. In the past, EPP and S&D often formed the dominant coalition, with or without the Liberals. They can continue to do so. If that will be the case, little will change in terms of the balance of power in the European Parliament
What will change?
Will these elections change policies in the EU? Maybe, maybe not. In the European Union, we have to distinguish three centers of power: the European Council (the Heads of Government); the European Commission (the 27 Commissioners) and the European Parliament. Of these three, the European Council, having executive power, is by far the most important; the Commission has agenda-setting and knowledge power. The EP is the least important. Let’s look at these three centers of power.
First, the governments of the countries. Germany and France have traditionally been and will remain the two most important countries. The German-French axis steers Europe. Italy, Spain and Poland are important on the flanks of this axis. The influence of the other 22 countries depends mainly on the personal prestige of the leader of that country. After the departure of the UK, Prime Minister Rutte of the Netherlands, as one of the longest-serving prime ministers, apparently had influence. What will change in these countries? Germany is not stable. Nationwide elections are scheduled there for September 2025 (Bundestag). However, there will be elections in three Länder in the East during September 2024. They are important, for in the five Länder in the East (former DDR, communist) the AfD (radical right and behind a cordon sanitaire) is first in these EP elections with about 30%, but Wagenknecht has 13%-15% and is mostly third. Union is second with about 20%. In France there will be new elections in three weeks. Macron gambles. Italy, Spain and Poland look stable, but they have basically different positions to Europe. In the Netherlands, a cabinet will soon take office that is much more EU-critical than its predecessor.
Second, a new Commission will be formed. That’s a complicated negotiation game for power and control. Decisive players are the Heads of Governments, but the Parliament has an important role. It has to agree with candidates and decide upon the basis of a rather heavy interview with candidates. It happens regularly that candidates fail.
Third. What fractions will be formed? Will Le Pen and Meloni cooperate and work together in the ECR? If others would join in, the ECR maybe could become the second fraction. But most important is: who will the EPP choose as preferred partner? The EPP is in the center. They are most powerful. They can go on forming coalitions with S&D and liberals as they did up till now. In that case, there will not change a lot. We have to wait.
Concluding remark
So, at the moment, there are still a lot of unknowns. It is not useful to speculate. We have to wait for the result of the parliamentary elections in France, for the set-up of the new Commission and for the creation of the new fractions in the European Parliament. As soon as all this is realized, I will come up with a new article about the direction in which the EU is moving.
About the author: Gerrit Jan Bouwhuis (1948) was advisor to the Minister of Finance in the Netherlands. After his retirement, he made study trips to Africa and Eastern Europe. Since 2018, he has worked as an international election observer in Ukraine, Iraq and Turkey.
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