BRIEF EXPOSITION OF THE LATEST SERIOUS AND VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS IN SOUTH AFRICA
- Dr Johan Burger
- 18 hours ago
- 11 min read
By Dr Johan Burger
Independent Crime and Policing Consultant,
Pretoria
INTRODUCTION
The 2011/12 period seems to have been a negative turning point for crime and policing in South Africa, coinciding with the so-called state capture era which significantly weakened the Criminal Justice System (CJS). While state capture played a role, the decline in the CJS’s effectiveness and the rise in serious crime likely have broader causes than state capture alone. Regardless, the medium and longer term consequences for safety and security are deeply worrying.
Some of these consequences were succinctly captured in a report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) during 2024 which stated:[i]
With the birth of democracy in South Africa, the murder rate declined by 55% until 2012, when the lowest murder rate was recorded. In the 2022/23 financial year, South Africa experienced a 53% increase in the murder rate since 2012, with gender-based violence and violent robberies at unacceptably high levels. Organised crime has become increasingly entrenched ... posing an existential threat to our democracy.
... since 2012, we have become increasingly concerned by evidence that the SAPS' [South African Police Service] organisational performance and policing generally in South Africa are in a state of decline. This means that a far greater impact could have been achieved to reduce crime and improve public safety with the available resources than has been the case for many years.
Since the ISS report, the SAPS has also published its 2024/25 annual report with the latest crime figures.[ii] Based on the last two annual reports (2023/24 and 2024/25) a slightly more positive trend over the last two financial years appear to emerge, although the trend for commercial crime seems to be moving quite alarmingly in the wrong direction. Therefore, to put the latest crime trends and tendencies into perspective the more pertinent crimes such as murder, aggravated robbery (and its sub-categories) and commercial crime are discussed below.
VIOLENT CRIME
Murder
Murder and aggravated robbery are two of the country’s most serious and violent crimes. Both have been on the increase since 2012 until at least 2023/24.
Figure 1 shows South Africa’s murder rate increasing since 2012 after 18 years of consistent decrease. It rose from 29.6 per 100 000 in 2011/12 to 45.2 in 2022/23. There was one exception in the upward trend with a drop from 35,7 in 2019/20 to 33.1 in 2020/21. This tendency is evident in most of the violent crimes and can be attributed to the so-called ‘COVID dip’ in 2020 since it is linked to the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown with its period of rigorous restrictions. The restrictions were enforced by the police and members of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF).
Since the lifting of these restrictions by 2021 and until 2023/24, there has been a gradual return to a rising murder rate with, at best, indications of stabilisation at above 44 murders per 100 000. Surprisingly, however, in 2024/25 the murder rate declined substantially to 39,6. It's still early days but Figure 2 shows the same promising downward trend for aggravated robbery.
The apparent downward trend in South Africa's violent crime statistics is somewhat perplexing. The persisting criminogenic push-factors (socio-economic conditions, socio-political instability, organised crime and weaknesses in the criminal justice system) make a substantial decrease unlikely and difficult to explain.
In fact, there is every indication that because of the existing and even worsening criminogenic push-factors violent crime levels should continue to rise. Criminogenic factors include cultural attitudes, frustration, poverty, unemployment, inequality, impunity, ease of obtaining guns, ammunition and other deadly weapons as well as the seeming inability of the criminal justice system and other government institutions to effectively address these push factors.
It is important to investigate and explain the unexpected decline in levels of violent crime and hopefully the research community will pay close attention to this apparent contradiction.
Aggravated robbery
The decline in police performance especially since state capture and the ostensible failure to turn the organisation around is quite evident and well reported in official reports such as those from the Auditor General as well as in research publications. But although this is an important contributing factor it certainly is not the only reason South Africa appears to find it difficult to bring our crime under control. It is therefore important to keep asking questions about causative factors, combating measures and responsibilities as we work our way through the crime statistics.
As indicated in Figure 2, aggravated robbery comprises seven sub-categories and, except for bank robberies – , which averaged 6.5 robberies per year over the last decade,l the sub-categories increased as indicated over the 2011/12–2023/24 period. However, in 2024/25 aggravated robberies also dropped by 9,6% from 150 317 to 135 840 incidents. As for bank robberies, the bad years during this period were 2014/15, 2017/18 and 2021/22 with 17, 13 and 13 robberies respectively.
Following the murder trend, aggravated robberies dropped significantly during 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions with subsequent increases once the restrictions were lifted. It is, however, important to also look at some of the other sub-categories of aggravated crime such as the so-called ‘trio crimes’ (house robbery, business robbery and carjacking), cash-in-transit (CIT) robberies and truck hijackings.
Trio crimes
The police and National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) prioritise trio crimes because of their serious nature, their high incidence, the use of firearms, trend similarities and the level of fear they create. They also share much the same psychological message – that there is ‘no place to hide’ from criminal attacks. This creates both a perception and a threat that the domestic home is no longer safe, nor is travelling on the country’s roads or visiting places such as shops or areas of entertainment.
Figure 3 clearly shows the turning point after 2011/12 when two of the trio crimes, carjacking and house robbery, returned to an upward trend after declining in the preceding three to four years. House robbery remains at a very high level only slightly decreasing from 23 614 in 2023/24 to 23 105 in 2024/25. Carjacking fared slightly better, declining by 11,4% in the last financial year from 22 735 incidents in 2023/24 to 20 150 in 2024/25.
The trend for the third of the trio crimes, business robbery, looks more promising. After increasing quite sharply between 2004/05 and 2008/09, by 2016/17 it showed early signs of at least slowing down its rate of increase. But, unexpectedly, between 2022/23 and 2024/25 business robbery showed a significant decrease (34%) from
22 702 reported incidents to 14 998.
Incidentally, the SAPS’s Crime Registrar’s Office noted that most of these robberies occurred in small businesses, often in township areas without private security. Small businesses are also more susceptible to protection rackets and extortion. In this regard senior ISS researcher Vanya Gastrow cautions against relying solely on reported crime trends,[iii] noting that the apparent decline in business robberies in Cape Town’s townships likely reflects underreporting rather than a real decline. Gastrow argues that extortion groups have established themselves through violence, attacks and threats to such an extent that victims of robberies are now more inclined to report these crimes to the extortion gangs than the police.[iv]
Cash-in-transit (CIT) robberies
The SAPS defines CIT robberies as ‘the unlawful and intentional forceful removal and appropriation of money or containers for the conveyance of money belonging to another, while such money or containers ... are being transported by a security company on behalf of the owner thereof.’[v] It is also regarded by armed robbers as the ultimate crime and something they aspire to as they progress through the ranks from common robberies to CIT robberies.[vi]
As shown in Figure 4 CIT robberies remain a serious concern. In 2006/07, it reached its highest level at 467 robberies followed by a persistent 75% decline over the next eight years to 119 in 2014/15. After 2014/15 the situation fluctuated, initially increasing to 238 incidents in 2017/18 and again in 2022/23 before dropping over the next two years to 140 incidents in 2024/25.
The enhanced cooperation between the police, SABRIC and private security companies, which include the sharing of information and intelligence, enabled the police in particular to implement successful proactive operations. For example, proactive operations in the past has had an immediate impact on criminal activities such as the deaths of 17 CIT robbers in three separate incidents during November and December 2007.[vii] This probably was the biggest reason for the 75% decline between 2006/07 and 2014/15.
But while CIT robberies decreased quite sharply after 2007, there was a concomitant increase in ATM attacks and bombings. In 2005/06, the SAPS recorded only 10 ATM attacks, but in the next two years, this increased to 139 in 2006/07 and 431 a year later in 2007/08. Over the next few years, it fluctuated at relatively high levels above 200, reaching a total of 399 in 2010/11. According to SABRIC crime reports for 2020 to 2023, ATM attacks have averaged 372 attacks per year with 441 recorded in 2022.[viii] However, the figures for 2023 and 2024 appears to indicate a gradual decline in ATM attacks with 366 and 301 incidents respectively.[ix]
CIT robberies are not opportunistic crimes; they require extensive planning, resources and intelligence. Depending on the nature of the target, key requirements for a CIT robbery include explosives, ammunition, automatic firearms and vehicles. Future trends therefore will depend on the sustained collaboration among the stakeholders and the ease with which criminal syndicates are able to procure vital resources for their operations.
The rapid increase in ATM attacks can be directly attributed to the accuracy and timely deployment of the police after CIT robberies reached critical levels by 2006/07. The combined and effective response from the police, SABRIC and the CIT industry clearly unsettled CIT robbers. As a result, many of them moved to what they perceived as the less risky crime of attacking ATM machines, mostly using explosives but often also other equipment, such as grinders.
The shifting of criminal activity is well recorded in criminological analysis and manifests in various forms such as geographical and target displacement. For example, there now appears to be a geographical displacement from KwaZulu-Natal to the Eastern Cape because of the high number of CIT and other violent criminals being killed by the police in KwaZulu-Natal. The move from CIT robberies to ATM attacks by many CIT robbers is an example of target displacement as the robbers see this as less risky but still profitable, especially if they can hit several ATM machines in one night.
Studies show that the increase in physical security of ATMs, especially the placement of armed security guards to protect banking facilities, is relatively successful in preventing attacks. Extending or expanding such physical security to areas where this security has not been deployed could significantly reduce attacks on ATMs. It is also likely that new ATM machines with better security features may be required soon should attacks continue unabated.
Truck hijackings
As a form of aggravated robbery, truck hijackings are an increasing threat, for the employees in the truck, for its owners and for the South African economy. Countries in other parts of Africa as well as South Africa are increasingly dependent on road transport for trade and other purposes, including to and from South Africa’s airports and harbours. These trucks carry valuable loads and have, therefore, become lucrative targets.
The graph in Figure 5 is another stark reminder of the negative impact of state capture on South Africa’s crime situation. After truck hijackings peaked at 1 437 in 2008/09, there was a year-on-year decrease to 821 in 2011/12. Since then, the trend was upwards. In 2023/24, the figure stood at 1 976 incidents, 141% up from 2011/12.
From the high number of incidents in 2022/23 (1 995) there was a 20% decrease over the next two years to 1 589 in 2024/25 but it remains to be seen whether this is the beginning of a new downward trend.
It is unclear whether the SAPS and other law enforcement agencies have a dedicated strategy to deal with this particular serious crime - the rise in incidents suggests this is not the case. Recent government statements and efforts to rebuild the rail industry and its infrastructure is certainly the right approach, but the neglect, which happened over a long time, will similarly take time before it is sufficiently fixed to transport huge quantities of cargo.
COMMERCIAL CRIME
Commercial crime remains one of the most challenging criminal activities to detect and investigate. It is defined by the SAPS using three sub-categories:[x]
Fraud (including attempted fraud) is the unlawful, intentional distortion of the truth which is calculated to prejudice another.
Forgery is the unlawful, intentional falsification of a document or written instrument, calculated to cause prejudice.
Uttering is the unlawful offering, passing off or communication of a forged document, with the intention to defraud, and which causes prejudice or potential prejudice to another.
The responsibility for investigating commercial crime is also complicated in the sense that it is a shared responsibility between SAPS detectives and the SAPS’s Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (DPCI) or Hawks. A case qualifies for the DPCI if it meets the test of being a serious commercial crime, as defined in the directorate’s mandate.[xi] The DPCI accordingly expands on the general definition of commercial crime by adding the following qualification:[xii]
Commercial crime refers to fraud, forgery, uttering and theft (such as the theft of trust funds). It also includes statutes pertaining to companies, trusts and close corporations, long-term and short-term insurance, the counterfeiting and illicit trade in counterfeit products and goods, intellectual property rights, banks and the banking industry, exchange control, estate agents and computer-related or cybercrime involving corruption.
Unfortunately, the SAPS’s annual and crime reports do not make any of these distinctions in their statistics on commercial crime. Similarly, their detection statistics are further narrowed down to fraud only.
However, unlike the apparent downward trend in violent crime, commercial crime is persistently increasing and at a rapid rate. The statistics in Figure 6 clearly indicate a rapid and worrying upward trend in commercial crime rising by 153% from 56 232 cases in 2002/03 to 142 160 in 2024/25. In the last decade alone, cases increased by 110% from 67 830 cases to 142 160.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
Early indications, at least over the last two financial years, seem to indicate a gradual downward trend in South Africa's violent crime while the opposite appears to be happening with commercial crime. It is difficult to explain why violent crime shows a downward trend when there is no apparent improvement in the conditions at the root of these crimes. The questionable performance of the criminal justice system, largely as a lingering consequence of state capture, is a good example. In fact, after the shocking public exposure by Kwazulu-Natal provincial commissioner, Lieutenant General Nhlanhla Mkwanazi, in April 2025, of high level corruption within the criminal justice system and elsewhere president Cyril Ramaphosa was forced to appoint a commission of inquiry to investigate these allegations. At the time of writing this investigation as well as a parallel investigation by a multi-party ad-hoc committee of parliament is still continuing.
Other serious conditions include criminogenic or push factors such as high levels of unemployment and poverty in South Africa and its adverse impact on social conditions in many communities. According to Stats SA reports the current official unemployment rate is approximately 32% while the youth unemployment rate is over 50%. In its 2025 report titled Poverty trends in South Africa between 2006 and 2023, Stats SA found that by 2023 at least 17,6% or 10,8 million people in South Africa still lived in conditions of extreme poverty; 37,9% or 23,2 million lived below the lower-bound poverty line; and 66,7% or 40,8 million lived below the upper-bound poverty line.[xiii]
In spite of some improvements over time as far as poverty levels are concerned the current situation remains alarming and conducive to a range of social ills which feed into the criminogenic conditions at the heart of violent crime.
There are of course a range of other factors or conditions that require further study in order to understand why these crimes happen and what the reasons may be for the unexpected downward trend in violent crime and the concomitant and rapid rise in commercial crime. These trends and tendencies require further exploring and explanation, and hopefully this article provides some interest amongst academics and practitioners to take up the challenge.
[i] Justice and Violence Prevention Programme, ISS, Strengthening the SAPS for a safer South Africa: recommendations for police reform, 27 June 2024, https://issafrica.org/research/books-and-other-publications/strengthening-the-saps-for-a-safer-south-africa-recommendations-for-police-reform.
[ii] SAPS 2023-2024 Annual Crime Statistics Report, October 2024,
SAPS Annual Report 2024/2025, Republic of South Africa and Provincial Crime Statistics, 112,
oct-2025
[iii] V Gastrow, Is Cape Town’s drop in business robbery a cause for concern?, ISS Today, 9 July 2024, https://crimehub.org/iss-today/is-cape-town-s-drop-in-business-robbery-a-cause-for-concern.
[iv] Ibid.
[v] Ibid., 127.
[vi] H Lochner and P van Staden, Transito: The truth behind the big-money robberies, Pretoria: Unisa Press,
2020, 15–24.
[vii] Tebogo Monama, Police kill 11 heist robbers. Sowetan Live, 12 December 2007, www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/2007-12-12-police-kill-11-heist-robbers/#.
[viii] SABRIC Annual Crime Statistics, 2021 and 2023, 10 and 11, www.sabric.co.za/media-and-news/press-
releases/sabric-annual-crime-stats-2021/ and: https://www.sabric.co.za/media/vjyn5f4d/sabric-annual-
crime-stats-2023-2.pdf.
[ix] SABRIC Annual Crime Statistics, 2024, 12, www.sabric.co.za
[x] Ibid., SAPS 2023–2024 Annual Crime Statistics Report, 130, www.saps.gov.za/services/downloads/2024/2023-2024%20_Annual_Financial%20year_WEB.pdf.
[xi] SAPS Annual Report 2023/2024, 190, www.saps.gov.za/about/stratframework/annualreports.php.
[xii] Ibid.
[xiii] Stats SA, 2025, Poverty Trends in South Africa: An examination of absolute poverty between 2006 and 2023, Report No. 03-10-06, 14, https.//www.statssa.gov.za
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